It has been a rocky few months for Chinese table tennis. I’ve been following the professional game for the past twenty years and I don’t recall a time when Chinese players have been beaten so regularly.
In the latest tournament this past week, the WTT Champions Montpellier, all Chinese players were beaten by the semi-final stage.
At the Asian Table Tennis Championships, earlier in October, China were unable to win either the men’s singles or the women’s singles.
By China’s phenomenally high standard – near complete domination for 25 years – these recent losses are a little concerning. So what’s going on?
Keep things in perspective
Firstly, let’s not get too excited. Even though there have been a few wobbles of late, it has still been another dominant year for Chinese table tennis. China won all the gold medals at the Olympics in Paris. Chinese players have won all events, in all three Smash tournaments (the biggest tournaments on the WTT tour). And China won both the men’s and women’s titles in the ITTF team championships back in February. In all the biggest tournaments, China still has complete dominance.
However, the last few months have been notable for how often players from Europe, South Korea and Japan have been able to beat Chinese opponents, not only in smaller tournaments, but also in these big tournaments too.
Whilst at least one Chinese player always seems to be in peak form for a major tournament, the standard of the top 5 or 6 Chinese players has been much more variable. Why is this?
Current players not as strong
The first possible explanation is that the current crop of Chinese players aren’t as strong. Wang Chuqin and Lin Shidong are the new stars – the future of Chinese table tennis. Their top level is phenomenal, but their form is mixed. Neither have been able to sustain the highest standard for a prolonged period of time. Both are beatable when their level drops.
Lin Gaoyuan (29) and Liang Jingkun (28) have both been around for some time, but neither have ever established any dominance. Both are capable of winning tournaments, but neither have the fear factor of previous Chinese stars.
Then we have two of the all time greats. Ma Long is surely nearing the end of his career. His best days are behind him. Even though he has won so much in his career, he has been unable to win a WTT event in the past two years.
And finally we have current Olympic champion Fan Zhendong. For me, he is still the strongest Chinese player, but how much does he have left? He has been playing at the highest level since he was 16. Now he is aged 27 – and he has won his Olympic singles gold medal – does he still have the desire and fitness to dominate?
This current crop of players are more beatable than those who hav come before. The likes of Ma Lin, Wang Liqin, Wang Hao, Zhang Jike, Xu Xin, Ma Long (prime) and Fan Zhendong, were so much stronger than all other players. They all enjoyed huge domination against non-Chinese players. Their only real challenge was from each other. Can the latest Chinese players match their standard? I’m not so sure.
Europe closing the gap
Another factor is that players from other countries have improved. This is most evident in Europe. The emergence of Truls Moregardh (Sweden) and Felix Lebrun (France) has changed things. Both players are capable of playing at a standard which can match the Chinese, and as we have seen recently, surpass them.
But it’s not just about Truls and Felix. There is a lot of strength in depth in European table tennis. There are a number of players who now have a phenomenally strong attacking game, capable of beating Chinese players. These include Alexis Lebrun, Patrick Franziska, Darko Jorgic, Dang Qui, Benedikt Duda, Anton Kallberg and Anders Lind.
European table tennis is very competitive right now and I feel they are all pushing each other on to a higher standard.
During the period of the late 1990s through to the 2010s, China jumped in front. Their coaching methods, physical conditioning and sheer athleticism, left everyone behind. The rest of the world has caught up. The gap is now much, much smaller.
Changes to world tour
Another factor is structural. The new WTT tour is ensuring the top players face each other more regularly. In reality this has only been happening for two years. Even though WTT was established in 2019, the covid pandemic stalled everything for a couple of years.
Before WTT, players could pick and choose which tournaments to play. It was easier for the Chinese to manage their stars and limit their top players to fewer international tournaments. This is no longer possible. And there are two consequences.
Firstly, it is harder for Chinese players to maintain the very highest standard for every tournament. They are only human. They have injuries. They get tired. They struggle to keep themselves 100% motivated all the time. Therefore their level is more variable.
Secondly, the players aspiring to beat the Chinese have more exposure to them. They play them more often. They get more used to the Chinese players’ shots and tactics. The players and coaches talk to each other. They discuss ways of beating the Chinese. There is a greater exposure to the Chinese game and a greater knowledge on how to beat Chinese players.
Fear factor gone?
And finally, I believe the fear factor has gone.
Picture this situation…
You are playing someone you have never beaten. The player has a fierce reputation. The best player in the league. You are leading in the game, but you never truly believe you will win. The other player is too good and will surely catch-up. This fear seeps through to your game. You get edgy. You play a little more passive. Your fear of losing comes true. The stronger player does catch up and then powers past you and wins the game. You knew you weren’t going to win. The stronger player sensed this fear and exploited it.
This is the scenario which has occurred at the pro level for the past 25 years! The top Chinese players not only have unbelievable skills, but also ultimate confidence they will win. So many times we have seen players get close, but when the score is 8-8 or 9-9, the Chinese player often seems mentally stronger and wins the game. They have the fear factor.
But it seems this fear factor is reducing. With every recent win a non-Chinese player has over a Chinese player, this aura of invincibility takes some damage. If Truls Moregardh can beat Wang Chuqin, why can’t another player? If Felix Lebrun can beat Lin Shidong, why can’t another player? If Benedikt Duda can beat two Chinese players in the same tournament, why can’t any other top European player?
Not only are European and Japanese and South Korean players gaining confidence, but all of a sudden the Chinese players seem vulnerable. It’s like watching a formerly undefeated heavyweight boxer suddenly getting knocked out. The fearsome warrior is now sprawling on the canvas, unable to stand up. He is human, just like anyone else. Right now, Chinese players don’t seem so scary.
Temporarily blip?
Once again, let’s not get carried away. As I mentioned earlier, China still has complete dominance in actually winning all the major tournaments. This recent decline in form is most likely to be a temporary blip.
China still has, by far, the biggest resources to throw at developing their table tennis players. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wang Chuqin and Lin Shidong roar back in 2025 and dominate again. And no doubt there will be new Chinese superstars who emerge over the next couple of years.
But at this current moment, China is wobbling. This makes professional table tennis very exciting. It is more competitive than it has been for a very long time. There are some great personalities. WTT is doing a good job at creating some buzz around their Smash tournaments. Table tennis is in a good place. Long may it continue!
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